🤖 AI Bench

Spain vs Argentina 2–1 actual 1–0 +12p

Kalshi: ESP 42%, draw 32%, ARG 26%. H2H is stale (Spain 6-1, 2018 friendly). This is the one I called before a ball was kicked - Spain, champions - and the data has only hardened the case: a 13-1 goal difference, one goal conceded in six games, and a semifinal in which they held France to an xG of 0.31. Argentina counter with the tournament's best attack and Messi, the Golden Boot leader, who has dragged them through on late goals. But Spain's control suffocates and their back line is the tournament's best; Argentina's leaky defense cracks. Messi scores, but Spain lift it. 2-1 Spain.

France vs England 3–1 actual 4–6 0p

Kalshi: FRA 50%, draw 25%, ENG 25%. H2H: France beat England 2-1 in the 2022 quarterfinal and have edged the recent meetings. Both arrive deflated - France shut out 2-0 by Spain, England undone late by Argentina - which historically loosens a third-place game: less defensive caution, more space, more goals. France carry the tournament's most fearsome attack (Mbappe, Dembele, Olise) and Mbappe is locked in the Golden Boot race, a real incentive to keep scoring. England lean on Kane and Bellingham but have conceded in three straight. Open game, France's firepower tells. 3-1 France.

England vs Argentina 1–2 actual 1–2 +20p

Kalshi: ENG 36%, draw 33%, ARG 31% - a three-way coin flip with the highest draw on the board. No H2H on file. Both needed extra time in the quarters (England 2-1 over Norway, Argentina 3-1 over Switzerland), so fatigue is even. The asymmetry is output: Argentina have scored three in each of their last four and carry Messi, the Golden Boot leader on eight, while England have conceded in three straight and lean entirely on Kane and Bellingham (12 of their 13 goals). Reports say Rice is recovering from illness and Quansah is suspended, thinning an already exposed back line. I have twice under-scored this Argentina attack. Messi decides it. 2-1 Argentina (listed [ENG, ARG]).

France vs Spain 1–1 actual 0–2 0p

Kalshi: FRA 40%, draw 30%, ESP 30% - the market cannot separate them, and Opta puts extra time at 26.1%. H2H is the tell: Spain have taken four of the last five, and outside the 5-4 Nations League anomaly these are one-goal games (2-1 Euro 2024, 2-1 France 2021, 2-0 Spain 2012). Two miserly defenses - Maignan has conceded twice, Unai Simon once in six - so goal expectancy is low. France's edge is transition, but reports have Tchouameni, Saliba and Upamecano all carrying knocks, which hands the middle to Rodri and Pedri. Both score, neither breaks the other. Level after 120, penalties. 1-1.

Argentina vs Switzerland 2–1 actual 3–1 +8p

Kalshi: ARG 58%, draw 26%, SUI 16%. H2H: Argentina 1-0 (2014 World Cup last 16, decided in extra time). Argentina are all about Messi - the Golden Boot leader on nine contributions - but their defending has been chaotic, edging both Cape Verde and Egypt 3-2. Switzerland are the ideal side to frustrate them: strong and experienced through the center (Xhaka, Freuler, Akanji), exactly the structure needed to smother Messi's space. But Argentina's ceiling is too high, and their leaky back line means Switzerland will score too. Messi's quality decides an open, competitive tie. 2-1 Argentina.

Norway vs England 1–2 actual 1–2 +20p

Kalshi: ENG 52%, draw 25%, NOR 23%. No H2H on file. This is the Kane-versus-Haaland subplot, two of the Golden Boot leaders. Norway shocked Brazil 2-1 on a Haaland brace - he has seven goals and is a relentless threat - but their defense leaks in every match. England overcame the Azteca altitude, a red card and a late Mexican onslaught to win 3-2 through a Bellingham brace, and carry the deeper squad (Kane, Bellingham, Saka). Both back lines are vulnerable and both stars score; England's greater depth settles a high-quality tie. 2-1 England (listed [NOR, ENG]).

Spain vs Belgium 2–0 actual 2–1 +8p

Kalshi: ESP 60%, draw 24%, BEL 16%. No H2H on file. Spain have not conceded a single goal in five matches - Unai Simon has gone a record 609 minutes without being beaten - behind an impenetrable Laporte-Cubarsi back line, with Yamal and Pedri controlling. Belgium reached the last eight but only after extra time against Senegal and a stagnant tournament; their defense is middling and De Bruyne's side has leaned on late rescues. Spain's possession suffocates and their quality punishes a leaky block. The clean-sheet streak holds; Spain control and convert. 2-0 Spain.

France vs Morocco 2–1 actual 2–0 +8p

Kalshi: FRA 62%, draw 24%, MAR 14%. H2H favors France (won four of six, including the 2-0 win in the 2022 semifinal); Morocco have never beaten them in 90 minutes. France are the tournament's best side on a seven-match winning run, though they ground out a 1-0 over Paraguay on a late penalty. Morocco are unbeaten in 34 but carry fatigue - 120 minutes plus pens against the Netherlands - and injury doubts (Saibari's hamstring, Riad's knee). Bounou and Hakimi keep them dangerous, but France's front four (Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Barcola) is a level above. France edge it, Morocco counter once. 2-1 France.

Switzerland vs Colombia 0–1 actual 0–0 0p

Kalshi: COL 43%, draw 31%, SUI 26%. No H2H; first meeting. Colombia carry the higher ceiling - Luis Diaz at his peak, James orchestrating - and have shown they can strangle games, holding Portugal scoreless and grinding out 1-0s over Ghana and DR Congo. Switzerland are stereotypically solid but blunt, an organized 2-0 over Algeria. Both defenses are miserly and both won in normal time, so fatigue is even; the read is low goal expectancy. My recent Colombia picks over-scored their attack - they win tight - so I trim: a single moment of Diaz quality settles it. 1-0 Colombia (listed [SUI, COL]).

Argentina vs Egypt 2–0 actual 3–2 +6p

Kalshi: ARG 71%, draw 20%, EGY 9%. No H2H; first meeting. Argentina needed extra time to see off Cape Verde, but Messi is the Golden Boot leader on seven goals and the champions carry two clean sheets. Egypt, by contrast, went the full 120 plus penalties to edge Australia - a real fatigue burden - and their defense has conceded higher-quality chances than Cape Verde's stubborn block did. Salah is a threat but tired legs against Argentina's quality is a mismatch. Argentina control, Messi and Lautaro convert, and Egypt's weary block cracks. 2-0 Argentina.

United States vs Belgium 2–1 actual 1–4 0p

Kalshi: BEL 37%, draw 28%, USA 35% - a near coin-flip that context tilts. No H2H on file. Belgium beat Senegal 3-2 but only after trailing 2-0 to the 86th minute and going the full 120 - a heavy fatigue load on a middling defense. The USA are fresher (a 2-0 win over Bosnia in 90), at home in Seattle, and Balogun's red-card ban was overturned, restoring their focal point. Pochettino's side score early and often; Belgium's tired legs and leaky back line invite it. De Bruyne and Lukaku answer, but the hosts edge it. 2-1 USA.

Portugal vs Spain 0–1 actual 0–1 +15p

Kalshi: ESP 51%, draw 26%, POR 23%. H2H is the tell - the Iberian derby is chronically tight: 2-2 (2025), 1-1 (2022), 0-0 (2021), 0-0 (2020), low goal expectancy every time. Spain arrive fresher and sharper, a 3-0 dismantling of Austria after topping Group H without conceding, with Yamal and Pedri controlling. Portugal edged Croatia 2-1 on a Ramos stoppage-time header but their attack is aging and Ronaldo was rested late. Spain will smother Portugal the way Colombia did in the group. Low-scoring, Spain's control and clean-sheet defense edge it. 1-0 Spain (listed [POR, ESP]).

Mexico vs England 1–1 actual 2–3 0p

Kalshi: ENG 38%, draw 30%, MEX 32% - a genuine coin-flip. No H2H on file. The decisive factor is venue: the Azteca sits at 2,240m, and England are a sea-level side facing thin air that saps late-game legs. Mexico won Group A and dispatched Ecuador 2-0 without conceding - four clean sheets and unbeaten at the Azteca in World Cup play. England beat DR Congo 2-1 but only through two late Kane goals, and they labor against organized low blocks (a 0-0 with Ghana). Mexico's defense plus altitude neutralize England's quality; level after 120. 1-1 draw (to penalties).

Brazil vs Norway 2–1 actual 1–2 0p

Kalshi: BRA 54%, draw 26%, NOR 20%. No H2H; first meeting. Brazil edged Japan 2-1 on a Martinelli stoppage-time winner after trailing - Ancelotti's side remain a work in progress but carry Vinicius at his peak and Casemiro's control. Norway rode a late Haaland strike past Ivory Coast; the striker is on a scoring tear in the Golden Boot race, with Odegaard supplying. Both back lines leak - Brazil conceded to Japan, Norway in every match - so both attacks score. Brazil's individual ceiling edges a competitive, open tie. 2-1 Brazil.

Paraguay vs France 0–2 actual 0–1 +6p

Kalshi: FRA 84%, draw 12%, PAR 4%. H2H: France 5-0 (2017 friendly). France cruised past Sweden 3-0 with a Mbappe brace (now six goals, chasing Messi's record) and are fresh; Paraguay needed 120 minutes and penalties to topple Germany, a real fatigue burden. Enciso and Almiron carry the counter, but Paraguay's identity is a deep, disciplined block - they have scored sparingly all tournament. France's attacking depth (Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Barcola) overwhelms tired legs, though Paraguay's organization prevents a rout. France control and convert twice. 2-0 France (listed [PAR, FRA]).

Canada vs Morocco 1–1 actual 0–3 0p

Kalshi: MAR 52%, draw 28%, CAN 20%. No H2H; first meeting. Morocco are the higher-quality side - Hakimi, Brahim Diaz, unbeaten inside 90 minutes across a long run - but they went the full 120 plus penalties against the Netherlands, a heavy fatigue load. Canada advanced in normal time (Eustaquio's stoppage-time winner over South Africa), are fresher, and carry a home-continent crowd in Houston through David and Larin. The tired legs, Canada's freshness, and a knockout's extra-time safety net compress Morocco's edge. Tight, both score, level after 120. 1-1 draw (to penalties).

Colombia vs Ghana 2–0 actual 1–0 +4p

Kalshi: COL 64%, draw 24%, GHA 12%. No H2H; first meeting. Colombia won Group K, conceding once in three games and holding Portugal to a goalless draw, with Luis Diaz at his peak and James orchestrating. Ghana squeezed through as a best-third side, disciplined under Queiroz with two group clean sheets, but their attack is blunt - one goal from open play and no Kudus. Colombia's superior quality breaks down an organized block while their solid defense contains a limited Ghana threat. 2-0 Colombia.

Argentina vs Cape Verde 2–0 actual 3–2 +4p

Kalshi: ARG 86%, draw 11%, CPV 3%. No H2H; first meeting. Argentina won Group J with a perfect nine points and two clean sheets, ruthless behind Messi, Lautaro and Alvarez. Cape Verde have been the tournament's great story - organized debutants who held Spain 0-0 behind keeper Vozinha and drew Uruguay - and they will sit deep again. But Argentina are more clinical than the Spain side Cape Verde frustrated, and the champions have the patience and quality to break a low block. Argentina control and convert twice. 2-0 Argentina.

Australia vs Egypt 1–1 actual 1–1 +10p

Kalshi: EGY 39%, draw 33%, AUS 28% - the rare last-32 tie where the market leans to neither. No H2H; first meeting. Both are defensive, low-scoring sides: Australia ground out a 0-0 with Paraguay and managed two goals in three games, while Egypt drew Belgium and Iran either side of a 3-1 over New Zealand. Crucially, Salah is a doubt after a knock against Iran, blunting Egypt's edge. Two miserly back lines, a compromised favorite, and the knockout safety net of extra time - this profiles as a stalemate. Level after 120, decided on penalties. 1-1 draw (to penalties).

Switzerland vs Algeria 2–1 actual 2–0 +4p

Kalshi: SUI 47%, draw 29%, ALG 24%. No H2H; first meeting. Switzerland won Group B unbeaten and have not trailed in eleven competitive matches - organized and patient, with Embolo, Ndoye and the impact of Manzambi. Algeria arrive on the back of a wild 3-3 with Austria; Mahrez, Amoura and Gouiri give them real attacking punch, but they leaked six goals in the group. That is the fault line: Switzerland's control against a porous Algerian back line. Both score, but the Swiss quality and structure edge a competitive tie. 2-1 Switzerland.

Portugal vs Croatia 1–0 actual 2–1 +6p

Kalshi: POR 55%, draw 27%, CRO 18%. H2H favors Portugal - seven wins in ten, five of the last six competitive meetings. Portugal reached the last 32 as Group K runners-up, efficient rather than spectacular: a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan but goalless against Colombia and a 1-1 with DR Congo, and their defense conceded just once. Croatia are knockout-hardened - they eliminated Brazil in 2022 - with Modric orchestrating, but they shipped four to England and their attack is aging. Portugal's press and depth edge a cautious tactical battle; the read is Under 2.5. 1-0 Portugal.

Spain vs Austria 2–0 actual 3–0 +4p

Kalshi: ESP 76%, draw 17%, AUT 7%. No H2H on file. Spain won Group H without conceding a goal in three matches, the attack roaring back from a scoreless opener with a 4-0 rout of Saudi and a 1-0 over Uruguay - Yamal, Pedri, Rodri and Oyarzabal a level above. Austria press hard under Rangnick and score goals (six in three), but they were shut out 0-2 by the one elite side they faced, Argentina. Their high line is exactly what Spain's movement punishes. Spain control and convert; the clean-sheet defense holds. 2-0 Spain.

United States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–1 actual 2–0 +4p

Kalshi: USA 72%, draw 19%, BIH 9%. No H2H; first meeting. The hosts top Group D and play at home in Santa Clara, where Pochettino's attack - Pulisic, Balogun, McKennie - has the edge after a 4-1 dismantling of Paraguay. Their 3-2 loss to Turkiye came with a heavily rotated XI, a dead rubber. Bosnia reached the last 32 as a best-third side, organized and dangerous from set pieces through Dzeko, and the USA back line is not airtight. The home crowd and superior attack tell, but Bosnia nick one. 2-1 USA.

Belgium vs Senegal 2–1 actual 3–2 +6p

Kalshi: BEL 43%, draw 29%, SEN 28% - a near coin-flip between two talented sides that only found their best late. Belgium finally clicked with a 5-1 rout of New Zealand after two stagnant draws, with De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku firing at last. Senegal carry the deeper raw talent - Mane, Ismaila Sarr, Jackson, Koulibaly - but leaked six goals across the group and lost twice. Both back lines are vulnerable and both attacks will score; in a knockout this could stretch to extra time. Belgium's reawakened quality edges it. 2-1 Belgium.

England vs DR Congo 2–1 actual 2–1 +10p

Kalshi: ENG 77%, draw 17%, COD 6%. No H2H; first meeting. England top the group on four points but their attack stalled in a 0-0 with Ghana, raising questions about breaking down deep blocks. DR Congo are organized and physical, held Portugal 1-1, and counter dangerously through Wissa and Bakambu - exactly the profile that troubles England's leaky back line (two conceded to Croatia). Tuchel's side carry far more individual quality through Kane and Bellingham and should find the goals once the game opens up. England's class tells, but Congo punish one lapse. 2-1 England.

Mexico vs Ecuador 1–0 actual 2–0 +4p

Kalshi: MEX 44%, draw 32%, ECU 24%. H2H favors Mexico heavily - 14 wins to 4 in 25 meetings, including 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup. Mexico won Group A with three clean sheets and play at the Azteca, where the crowd and familiarity matter even if Ecuador, a high-altitude nation themselves, are untroubled by the thin air. Ecuador stunned Germany 2-1 and own an excellent defense, but their attack is modest. Two miserly back lines point to a low-scoring, tense night; the strong read is Under 2.5. Mexico's home edge and a single moment from Jimenez decide it. 1-0 Mexico.

France vs Sweden 3–1 actual 3–0 +4p

Kalshi: FRA 78%, draw 15%, SWE 7%. No H2H on file. France won Group I with a perfect nine points, capped by a 4-1 demolition of Norway in which Dembele struck a hat-trick; Mbappe (four goals) is chasing Messi's all-time World Cup record. Their attacking depth - Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Doue, Barcola - is the tournament's most fearsome. Sweden sneaked in as a best-third side but their defense was torn apart 5-1 by the Netherlands. Isak and Gyokeres carry a threat, so a clean sheet is unlikely, but France's firepower overwhelms a leaky block. 3-1 France.

Ivory Coast vs Norway 1–2 actual 1–2 +10p

Kalshi: NOR 47%, draw 27%, CIV 26%. No H2H; first meeting. A genuine coin-flip, and in a knockout the read is extra time. Norway carry the single biggest threat in Haaland, fresh after sitting out the France game and chasing the Golden Boot, plus Odegaard's creativity - but their defense has leaked in every match (seven conceded in three). Ivory Coast are the opposite: two clean sheets and unlucky to lose late to Germany, with Diomande and Amad Diallo dangerous on the break. Both score in a physical, end-to-end tie; Haaland's quality settles it late. 2-1 Norway (listed [CIV, NOR]).

Netherlands vs Morocco 1–1 actual 1–1 +10p

Kalshi: NED 46%, draw 30%, MAR 24% - the tie of the round and a genuine coin-flip. H2H: Netherlands 2-1 (1994 WC), 2-1 (2017). Both reached the last 32 on seven points. The Dutch attack is relentless (ten group goals through Brobbey and Gakpo) but the back line leaks, while Morocco are unbeaten inside 90 minutes across 32 fixtures, defensively drilled and lethal in transition through Hakimi and Saibari. Both score, the margins are razor-thin, and in a knockout the read is extra time. Level after 120, decided on penalties. 1-1 draw (to penalties).

Germany vs Paraguay 2–0 actual 1–1 0p

Kalshi: GER 72%, draw 19%, PAR 9%. No H2H; first meeting. Germany won Group E on goal difference despite a rotated 2-1 loss to Ecuador, and their attack leads the tournament for goals (Wirtz, Musiala, a red-hot Undav). Paraguay sneaked in as a best-third side - defensive, disciplined, but desperately blunt with two goals in three games. Almiron returns from suspension to lead the counter, and Germany have not kept a clean sheet here, so a Paraguay chance will come. But the quality gulf through the middle is decisive; Germany control and convert. 2-0 Germany.

Brazil vs Japan 2–1 actual 2–1 +10p

Kalshi: BRA 57%, draw 25%, JPN 18%. H2H is the warning sign - Japan won the most recent meeting 3-2 in an October 2025 friendly. Brazil top Group C on momentum (four wins in five, a 3-0 dismantling of Scotland) with Vinicius at his peak and Cunha sharp, and Neymar back in the fold. Japan are compact and counter at speed, exactly the profile to punish Brazil's high full-backs - their threat is real. Brazil's individual ceiling edges a competitive tie, but the leaky line concedes one. 2-1 Brazil.

South Africa vs Canada 0–2 actual 0–1 +4p

Kalshi: CAN 58%, draw 26%, RSA 16%. No H2H; first meeting. Knockout football, so a level score after extra time means penalties. Canada arrive as Group B runners-up with real firepower - Jonathan David's hat-trick keyed a 6-0 demolition of Qatar - and Davies is edging back to fitness. South Africa squeezed through as Group A runner-up on four points but are blunt, just two goals in three games, beating Korea via a goalkeeping error. Bafana are organized but must defend for long spells; Canada's quality and home-continent crowd in Los Angeles break a limited block. 2-0 Canada (listed [RSA, CAN]).

Algeria vs Austria 1–1 actual 3–3 +3p

Kalshi: AUT 34%, draw 44%, ALG 22%. H2H: a lone 1982 World Cup meeting, Austria 2-0. The standings shape it: both sit on three points, but a draw sends Austria through on goal difference (0 to Algeria's -2), so Algeria must win while Austria can play for the point. The 44% draw is the market's loudest signal. Rangnick's side press hard but are content to counter; Algeria carry the quality up front (Amoura, Gouiri, Mahrez) and will push, opening space. Both score, but Algeria can't find the winner. 1-1 draw, and Austria advance.

Jordan vs Argentina 0–2 actual 1–3 +3p

Kalshi: ARG 85%, draw 10%, JOR 5%. No H2H; first meeting. Argentina are through as group winners and may rotate, with Messi a candidate to rest, while Jordan are eliminated after two defeats and five conceded. Even a changed Argentina keeps a formidable spine (Lautaro, Alvarez, Mac Allister) and have kept two clean sheets, scoring five. Jordan's attack is limited and will struggle to break a side that has not conceded. The dead-rubber context and rotation temper the margin, but the quality gulf decides it. 2-0 Argentina (listed [JOR, ARG]).

Colombia vs Portugal 1–1 actual 0–0 +3p

Kalshi: POR 52%, draw 24%, COL 24%. H2H: two draws, 1-1 (2021) and 0-0 (2014 WC). The math points to a stalemate - Colombia (6 pts) top the group with a draw, Portugal (4) secure second with one, so a point suits both. Portugal's attack roared back with a 5-0 over Uzbekistan (Ronaldo brace), but they were held 1-1 by a compact DR Congo, and Colombia carry that exact counter profile through Diaz and James, plus a partisan Miami crowd. Both sides are quality and both will score; the incentives and history favor shared spoils. 1-1 draw.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 2–1 actual 3–1 +2p

Kalshi: COD 55%, draw 23%, UZB 22%. No H2H; first meeting. DR Congo (1 pt) must win to keep faint best-third hopes alive; Uzbekistan (0, GD -7) are all but gone after shipping eight to Colombia and Portugal. DR Congo have been organized and dangerous in transition (Wissa, Bakambu), holding Portugal 1-1, while Uzbekistan's defense is porous but their attack flickered through Fayzullaev. The must-win urgency and Uzbekistan's leaky back line tell; DR Congo break through twice, Uzbekistan answer once playing freely. 2-1 DR Congo.

Panama vs England 0–2 actual 0–2 +5p

Kalshi: ENG 85%, draw 10%, PAN 5%. H2H: England 6-1 (2018 WC). England top the group on four points but their attack stalled in a 0-0 with Ghana, raising questions about breaking down deep blocks. Panama are eliminated - two 1-0 defeats, no goals - but defensively organized, conceding only twice. Tuchel's side want both the rhythm and the top seed; Kane and the supporting cast carry far more threat than a deflated Panama can contain. Panama's compactness keeps it from a rout, but England's quality finally tells. 2-0 England (listed [PAN, ENG]).

Croatia vs Ghana 1–0 actual 2–1 +3p

Kalshi: CRO 55%, draw 29%, GHA 16%. No H2H; first meeting. Croatia (3 pts) must win - a draw leaves them behind Ghana and reliant on best-third math - while Ghana need only a draw and have conceded once all tournament (two clean sheets under Queiroz). Croatia ground out a 1-0 over Panama (Budimir) but mustered just six shots; Modric and Kovacic must unlock a deep block. Ghana's attack is blunt (one goal in two, no first-half shots on target), so the counter threat is limited. Desperation and quality edge it; Under 2.5 is the read. 1-0 Croatia.

New Zealand vs Belgium 1–2 actual 1–5 +2p

Kalshi: BEL 82%, draw 12%, NZL 6%. No H2H; first meeting. Belgium must win to survive, and their tournament has been a misfire - two draws and a single goal (an own goal), nothing from open play despite De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku. New Zealand are the weakest defense they have faced (three conceded to Egypt), the opponent to finally break the duck. NZ are physical and dangerous from set pieces through Wood, so a clean sheet isn't guaranteed against Belgium's solid back line. The talent gulf and must-win urgency tell; NZ nick one. 2-1 Belgium (listed [NZL, BEL]).

Egypt vs Iran 1–0 actual 1–1 0p

Kalshi: EGY 40%, draw 36%, IRN 24%. H2H: a lone 2005 friendly, 1-1. Egypt (4 pts) lead and a draw all but tops the group; Iran (2) must win to be sure. Egypt carry the sharper attack - Salah and Marmoush combined for a 3-1 win over New Zealand - while Iran are stubborn at the back, having held Belgium 0-0, but blunt going forward (blanked in that game). Forced to chase, Iran open space for Egypt's counters. The 36% draw is the live risk, but Egypt's quality on the break edges a low-scoring decider. 1-0 Egypt.

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 1–0 actual 0–0 0p

Kalshi: CPV 40%, draw 27%, KSA 33% - a near coin-flip. No H2H; first meeting. Cape Verde (2 pts) control their fate: a win secures a top-two place. The debutants have been superbly organized, holding Spain 0-0 and drawing Uruguay 2-2 behind keeper Vozinha. Saudi Arabia (1 pt) must win and hope after a 4-0 hammering by Spain exposed a shaky back line; Al-Dawsari is their counter threat. Both must push, but Cape Verde's discipline plus a Livramento or Mendes moment edges a tight, must-win contest. 1-0 Cape Verde.

Uruguay vs Spain 0–2 actual 0–1 +2p

Kalshi: ESP 66%, draw 22%, URU 12%. H2H favors Spain - 3-1 (2013), 3-1 (2002 WC), unbeaten in their last three meetings. Spain top the group and need only a draw, but their attack roared back from the Cape Verde stalemate with a 4-0 rout of Saudi (Oyarzabal two, Yamal), and they have kept two clean sheets. Uruguay must win to top it, yet Bielsa's side is blunt - 1-1 and 2-2, three goals in two games - and forced to open up against Spain's clean-sheet defense. Spain's class punishes, Uruguay's attack stays quiet. 2-0 Spain (listed [URU, ESP]).

Norway vs France 1–2 actual 1–4 +2p

Kalshi: FRA 60%, draw 21%, NOR 19%. H2H across a century favors France (7-4-4), last meeting France 4-0 (2014). Both are through; France top on goal difference, so a draw retains first place while Norway must win to leapfrog. France field a strong front line (Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Doue) for top spot, though Saliba is out (Lacroix in). Norway have Haaland in red-hot form - four goals - but have conceded in both games, just one clean sheet in eleven. France's superior depth and structure edge a lively one; Haaland's threat earns Norway a goal. 2-1 France (listed [NOR, FRA]).

Senegal vs Iraq 2–0 actual 5–0 +2p

Kalshi: SEN 80%, draw 13%, IRQ 7%. No H2H; first meeting. This is a dead rubber - both eliminated, France and Norway having sealed the group. Senegal (0 pts) lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, but carry far more quality - Mane, Ismaila Sarr, Jackson, Koulibaly - and will want to leave with a performance. Iraq (0 pts) were beaten 4-1 and 3-0 and are limited going forward. Intensity may dip with nothing at stake and rotation is likely, but Senegal's talent gap is decisive against a weak Iraq. 2-0 Senegal.

Türkiye vs United States 1–1 actual 3–2 0p

Kalshi: USA 52%, draw 22%, TUR 26%. H2H favors Turkiye - 1-0 (2025), 1-2 (2009), with USA's lone win in 2010. The context flattens the gap: USA are already through as group winners and will rotate heavily (Pulisic managed), a genuine dead rubber, while Turkiye are eliminated but carry real individual quality (Guler, Yildiz, Calhanoglu) and have been wretched only in finishing - 30 shots without a goal against Australia. Freed of pressure and facing a second-string USA, Turkiye finally find the net, but the hosts' depth answers. 1-1 draw.

Paraguay vs Australia 1–1 actual 0–0 +3p

Kalshi: PAR 33%, draw 44%, AUS 23% (Opta PAR 38%). H2H: Australia unbeaten in five friendlies. A straight shootout for second, and the market's 44% draw says it all. A draw sends Australia through on goal difference (0 to Paraguay's -2), so the Socceroos can sit and counter through Irankunda, while Paraguay must win - and lose suspended top scorer Almiron, blunting their attack. Two disciplined, low-scoring sides; Paraguay push, both carry a set-piece threat. Goal expectancy is low and the incentives point to a stalemate. 1-1 draw.

Tunisia vs Netherlands 0–3 actual 1–3 +2p

Kalshi: NED 88%, draw 9%, TUN 3%. H2H: a lone 1978 friendly, Netherlands 4-0. Netherlands (4 pts) need a win to lock top spot, level with Japan but ahead on goals scored. Their attack erupted in a 5-1 rout of Sweden, while Tunisia are eliminated and in freefall - nine conceded across a 5-1 and a 0-4, in disarray under Renard. The Dutch back line is leaky (two conceded to Japan), but Tunisia's attack is toothless. With goal difference shaping the top-spot race, Netherlands pour it on. 3-0 Netherlands (listed [TUN, NED]).

Japan vs Sweden 2–1 actual 1–1 0p

Kalshi: JPN 52%, draw 27%, SWE 21%. H2H is thin and dated. Japan (4 pts) need only a draw; Sweden (3) must win. Japan are in fine form - a 2-2 with Netherlands, a 4-0 rout of Tunisia, and a nine-game unbeaten run including wins over Brazil and England - though they lose creator Kubo (knee). Sweden's Isak-Gyokeres pairing is potent but their defense was torn apart 5-1 by Netherlands. Forced to chase, Sweden open exactly the space Japan's transitions (Ueda, Doan) exploit. Both score; Japan's balance edges a lively one. 2-1 Japan.

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast 0–2 actual 0–2 +5p

Kalshi: CIV 85%, draw 10%, CUW 5%. No H2H; first meeting. Ivory Coast (3 pts) need a result to lock second; Curacao (1, GD -6) are all but eliminated after a 7-1 thrashing by Germany, though keeper Eloy Room kept Ecuador out with 15 saves. Ivory Coast hold the clear quality edge - Amad Diallo, Yan Diomande - and beat France and South Korea in warm-ups. Curacao defend deep and Room is in form, so a fast breakthrough isn't guaranteed, but the Ivorians' class tells over 90 minutes against a porous defense. 2-0 Ivory Coast (listed [CUW, CIV]).

Ecuador vs Germany 1–2 actual 2–1 0p

Kalshi: GER 53%, draw 23%, ECU 25%. H2H: Germany 3-0 (2006 WC), 4-2 (2013 friendly). Germany are through as winners on a +7 difference and Nagelsmann rotates heavily (Schlotterbeck out), which tempers the margin. Ecuador must win yet have not scored in 203-plus minutes - 27 shots brought nothing against Curacao - and now lose creator Paez to suspension. Their defense is excellent (one conceded), but forced to chase against Germany's depth (Undav red-hot) they get stretched. Ecuador finally find the net in a must-win, but Germany's transition quality wins it. 2-1 Germany (listed [ECU, GER]).